The Weather Network predicts a reasonable fall and cold winter in the Thompson, Okanagan

Another long range weather forecast is calling for a transitional change to winter between now and the end of November, meaning mostly fall-like weather is in store.

The Farmers' Almanac came to a similar conclusion in its long range winter forecast, and Weather Network forecasters are calling for similar weather this fall. 

READ MORE: 'The main word is cold': Farmers' Almanac predicts chilly winter in Kamloops, Okanagan

Meteorologist Michael Carter with The Weather Network says a change in the present weather pattern in the Thompson-Okanagan is coming after the surge of late summer weather we have been experiencing.

“This late round of hot, dry weather has kicked up the wildfire season. It’s expected to continue for a little longer before a shift to a pattern of more on-shore flow,” Carter says.

That should mean a change to a more seasonable fall, at least, temperature-wise, and more importantly increased precipitation.

“The dry conditions have been a problem. We are looking for that fall pattern to set itself up,” he says.

That said, the fall forecast expects to see a slow transition to winter, with daily highs dropping two or three degrees each week as December approaches, and no abrupt beginning to winter expected.

“There shouldn’t be more rainy days than normal, but with moisture coming from a flow out of the Gulf of Alaska, we can expect more precipitation when it does fall,” Carter says.

Looking beyond fall in The Weather Network’s sneak peak of winter, indications are southern British Columbia could be in for a cold one.

Carter says a La Niña has set up in the Pacific Ocean, usually an indicator of more severe winter conditions ahead.

“It could be a wild ride,” he says.

Long range weather forecasts might help us prepare but are very difficult to be accurate. While the Farmers' Almanac and the Weather Network offer such educated guesses, Environment Canada does not. 

Carter says The Weather Network looks a number of different things when assessing a long range forecast, including specialized long range forecasting models, assessing global weather patterns and comparing past seasons, which is known as the ‘analog approach.’

“We are always taking new information in and refining the forecast as we go along,” Carter says.

To contact a reporter for this story, email Steve Arstad or call 250-488-3065 or email the editor. You can also submit photos, videos or news tips to: tips@infonews.ca and be entered to win a monthly prize draw.

We welcome your comments and opinions on our stories but play nice. We won't censor or delete comments unless they contain off-topic statements or links, unnecessary vulgarity, false facts, spam or obviously fake profiles. If you have any concerns about what you see in comments, email the editor in the link above.